Mortgage News

Neel Kashkari, President of the Minneapolis Fed, says the labor market and broader economy are “pointing to a slowdown.”

I’d take it a step further, we’re not heading toward a slowdown, we’re already in it, based on what we’re seeing in the real employment data.

Here’s one clear sign: I’m converting half my clients with 7%+ rates into 20-year mortgages with nearly the same payment as their current 30-year loans.
That’s a huge win, shaving 10 years off without a major payment jump.

It’s time to get your house in order — seriously.

Let our team run a quick soft credit pull and get you fully approved for your next home.

Already own a home? We have bridge loan options that can help you buy before you sell. With a full loan approval in hand, you’ll have the confidence to list your current home and move forward with peace of mind.

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I’ve been sounding the alarm for years about the inaccuracy of the BLS jobs report compared to actual ADP data.

Two months ago, the red flags were clear: ADP reported 33,000 job losses, while BLS claimed 144,000 new jobs. Something didn’t add up.

What’s frustrating is that Fed policy leans heavily on the BLS report, even though it’s deeply flawed—not politically, but structurally.

The BLS relies on surveys sent to businesses without a firm deadline, and revisions happen because companies submit their data late, like turning in homework past due.

OPEC+ plans to increase output by 547,000 barrels per day starting in September — possibly bracing for a shift if India pulls back on Russian oil purchases.

Oil prices matter. They ripple through the entire economy, impacting everything from manufacturing to shipping. It’s a key piece of the inflation puzzle.

Rates moved lower Friday and again today — let’s hope this trend continues!
(Heads up: Green is good lower rates)

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The bond market reacted just as expected to weaker-than-forecast job numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

But here’s my biggest gripe: revisions.
Remember those “blowout” job reports two months ago? Turns out they were overstated—by 258,000 jobs.

This year, monthly revisions are averaging 77,000 jobs lower—more than double last year’s average. That’s a dangerous trend.

Let’s see what July looks like once it’s revised down too.

What does this mean for you?
The bond market is moving toward safety. Employment is sputtering, and the broader economy is showing signs of strain.

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For the first time since 1993, we have two dissenters — Waller and Bowman — both favoring a 0.25% rate cut.

The key shift in language: “The growth of the economy has moderated,” replacing previous references to “expanded,” signals a more cautious tone.

A growing number of Fed members are leaning dovish, pushing for a rate cut sooner rather than later.

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.3% — right in line with expectations.

However, the 3-month annualized rate jumped from 2.0% to 2.6%, a clear sign that tariffs are starting to have an impact.

My take: Powell needs to ease up. These high rates hit everyday people, not the big guys. I get the Fed’s fear of an overheated economy—but from where I’m standing, it doesn’t look like we’re anywhere close. Why not cut now?

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JOLTS Report – Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey

The latest JOLTS report showed hiring fell by 275,000, coming in 113,000 below expectations. The hiring rate declined from 3.4% to 3.3%, marking the lowest level since 2013 (excluding the COVID period). This points to a clear slowdown in hiring activity.

Quits rate also remained low at 2% meaning less people changing jobs.

Markets responded accordingly, with interest rates moving lower on the news.

Consumer Confidence: Feeling Good… Kinda

Consumer confidence rose from 95.2 to 97.2 a 2-point boost! 🎉

But before we throw a parade, the expectations component is still dragging below 80.

Translation? Americans are basically saying:
“I feel good today… but ask me about next week and I’ll be hiding under my desk with snacks.”

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I recently went to a clothing store and bought a pair of khaki pants for $76. They were tan, fit well, but I digress. That $76 represents the Total Cost of Goods.

In the context of importing, the Import Cost refers specifically to the price paid to a foreign supplier for the goods themselves. The Total Cost of Goods, however, includes all expenses incurred to get those goods to their final destination, ready for sale. These expenses may include:

• Initial purchase price
• Shipping
• Customs duties
• Insurance

Understanding the full cost is key to knowing where tariffs actually apply.

In my example, the new 15% tariff recently signed between the EU and the U.S. applies only to the cost of goods estimating around $21, not the retail price of $76. That means the tariff is based on a much lower dollar amount—specifically, the price paid to the foreign supplier, not the final selling price to the consumer.

It’s a huge week for inflation, jobs report and the Feds meet.

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After yesterday’s meeting between the President and Fed Chair Powell, the anticipated fireworks didn’t quite materialize—but make no mistake, Powell’s days may be numbered. What that means for rates? We don’t know yet, but the implications could be significant.

Durable Goods Orders dropped 9.3%, but don’t let that headline mislead you, it’s almost entirely due to last month’s spike in large aircraft orders. Context matters.

Looking ahead: next week brings some heavy hitters, Jobs numbers, Q2 GDP, and PCE inflation. Markets are watching unemployment closely, with expectations for a slight uptick from 4.1% to 4.2%.

Found this image yesterday, worth a pause. A reminder to consider the gap between how we project ourselves and who we truly are.

Lets get you pre-approved for a purchase or refi. Soft credit pull. http://www.YourApplicationOnline.com

The median home price was reported at $401,800, a decline of nearly 5% from $422,700.

This shift isn’t necessarily due to falling home values. There were 5,000 fewer homes sold over $500K and 5,000 more homes sold under $400K. This change in the mix of homes sold likely influenced the median.

Initial jobless claims fell by 4,000 to 217,000, signaling some resilience in the labor market. However, continuing claims remain elevated, hovering around levels last seen in 2021, suggesting that while layoffs may be slowing, re-employment is taking longer.

National Average Mortgage Rates:

• 30-year fixed: 6.77%
• 15-year fixed: 6.01%
• 30-year fixed refinance: 6.87%
• 15-year fixed refinance: 6.22% 

Freddie Mac July 2025

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Closings in June reflect contracts written back in April and May, when interest rates were at their highest levels since last year. At first glance, the numbers might make you say “OMG,” but it’s important to dig deeper.

Despite the headline reaction, there’s still a strong case for lower rates ahead and increasing inventory. Yes, inventory has been ticking up—but so have rates. The market remains in flux, and understanding the timing behind the data is key.

In a strained housing market, rising inventory tends to bring buyers off the sidelines. Combine that with lower interest rates, and you’ve got the ingredients for a real frenzy.

My thoughts and insight:

Housing prices aren’t going down—they’ve likely stabilized and become more in line with reality. That’s not a bubble bursting; it’s normalization.

Even in some of the hardest-hit areas like Florida and Texas, where we’ve seen price declines, values are still significantly higher than they were in 2019. The long-term fundamentals of the housing market remain strong.

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