Mortgage News

Unless it’s too late, then you need Acetone or Nail Polish Remover. You ask, what does Superglue have to do with the mortgage industry, I looked and couldn’t find a connection. But at least we know how to get our fingers apart.

The last Jobs Report turned the market sharply with the 10-year up 75bp. When the bond market is up, rates are up. Adding to this is the inflation date out of the Eurozone came in higher than expected.

But the somewhat silver lining in the hot jobs report is JOLTs, Indeed, LinkUP and ZipRecruiter are all showing declining job postings.

We will get our first indication of the February Jobs data next Wednesday.

Hang in there, it’s going to be a bumpy ride for the next few weeks.

Wolves have long, slender legs and narrow chests. They are adapted for running fast to catch moving prey like deer and elk.

2023 is turning in to an adaptive year. Rates are stubbornly high and refuse to do what they are told, kind of like a house cat. Home owners don’t know what to do when they have a low interest rate on a home they may not like. First time home buyers are just trying to qualify.

Something has to change but what? Inflation will go down, rates will follow and the weather will get warmer. What do we do in the mean time?

Adapting is making a decision you may not have a year earlier. Choose to sell before the market gets flooded with homes. Bid on that house before the rest of the buyers decide to buy.

Do something because doing nothing is its own decision.

Its an oldy but a goody. Have you ever had a dream that you are running but don’t seem to be moving forward (like running is water).

The National Case-Shiller Home Price Index shows home prices fell 0.8% in December, but they are still up almost 6% Y/Y. The FHFA (Federal Housing Finance Agency) released their numbers and are a close match Case-Shiller.

What does it mean? Inventory is low, demand is still there even with higher rates. The prediction of doom and gloom is just not panning out. If you are waiting for the floor to drop, the rates to improve, you have just invited your competition onto the playing field.

This is a buyers’ market more than ever.

Take the stairs even if the elevator is empty. Have a great rest of your week.

Snow in Los Angeles, Everything Everywhere All at Once wins Best Motion Picture and new discovery of a rapidly growing supermassive black hole.

Technical bits: Pending Home Sales measuring signed contracts on existing homes, rose 8.1% in January. Stronger than expected. Even though sales are down Y/Y it’s not as bad as the previous report.

The reaction of buyers when rates move down is clear. March 10th the February jobs report will be released as well as the CPI report March 14th which may be Bond friendly.

Make it a great week.

This is a big deal. For a typical FHA loan 3.5% down the Monthly mortgage insurance is 0.85% or for a $500k home that would be $341 monthly. The new annual premium will change to 0.55% or $221 monthly.

There are other premium changes for high balance loans, shorter amortization and larger down payment. This change will take effect on March 20th.

More than 80% of FHA borrowers are first-time homebuyers.

With regards to yesterday’s blog regarding the PCE report due out today, inflation rose 0.6% in January, Hotter than estimates. Y/Y readings were above estimates and moving in the wrong direction.

On a positive note, New Home Sales rose 7.2% in January.

Have a great weekend and always available if you have any questions.

Prices for goods and services constantly change. the PCE index tracks what a consumer pays and represents that as a number.

You have a basket of goods and services, each with a Different weight. If gas prices go up, that would have a larger impact on the PCE than the price of tomato’s because gasoline represents a larger portion of your total spending.

This is the preferred way the Federal Reserve measuring inflation. There are forecasting models that point to lower inflation by June 2023. Lower inflation typically translates to lower rates.

Stay tuned CPE numbers come out tomorrow.

From Germanic source it’s an Old High German bank or bench, moneylender’s exchange table.

Back to business: Bond Market is rebounding this morning after a tough couple of days. The unemployment rate is now at a 50-year low. The Fed may need to hike another 3 times.

Mortgage applications are down mainly because the interest rates ticked up the last week.

There is less competition for an already tight housing inventory which is good for buyers.

We are half way through the week, we can do this….

Have you wondered what Mardi Gras means? Well it literally is French for Fat Tuesday.

I was at John Wayne Airport May 4th last year and overheard one businessman asking the other “so when is Cinco de Mayo anyway”..

Sometimes what we are looking for is right in front of us. There is so much focus on the pending recession, earthquakes, layoffs, Murder Bees (ok that was a few years ago), but the point is there.

I am not seeing a slowdown in purchases. In fact we are seeing the opposite. Multiple offers and typically at or above list price. The unemployment rate is historically low and Spring is right around the corner.

Rates are what they are. We need to play the cards we are dealt and don’t throw away the aces.

Have a great week and always here to help.

Todays post is about how to keep moving forward in a rate sensitive environment. As a buyer or seller purchasing or selling can be scary. Is it the right time to buy, is it the right time to sell. I want to get the best deal or the highest price for my home.

A lack of decision is its own decision. Inventory is low keeping home prices up. Interest rates are historically not high – Freddie Mac 30y data.

To many buyers are on the fence not getting back in the market. If you wait for the right moment you’ll be confronted by everyone else. Same with sellers. The opportunity to sell in a tight market is exactly what you want.

Enough of my ranting, go watch Glengarry Glen Ross and get back out there.

I Speak for home buyers trying to get qualified for a mortgage. With the bond yields up, rates are also up. Qualified borrowers need to double check with their lender. What a difference a week makes.

On a positive note, Builder Confidence increased 7 points from 35 to 42 from a scale 1-100. To fully appreciate the increase, put yourself in the builders shoes. Existing home owners benefit as they are living in their home even if they can’t sell.

Builders on the other hand hold the inventory from start to finish and beyond. They have all the skin in the game and take all the risks. To see positive movement is a huge plus.

We are floating our clients locks as we feel the bond market is oversold and will rebound next week.