The Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) reported 187,000 Jobs created in July. The estimate was 200,000. June numbers were also revised lower from 209,000 to 185,000.

We are looking at the trend line. This is what a soft landing looks like.

Ran across this graph the other day and thought it was interesting given a new Nuclear Power Plant just went online last month in the state of Georgia. First reactor in the USA since 2016.

Jobs report coming out tomorrow. Been a tough week for rates. I am going to make this short as I am taking a in person test updating my National Mortgage credentials for TX and AZ license.

I will update in the Morning.

Annual pay for job stayers increased 6.2% year over year, but job changers saw an average increase of 10.2%.

ADP the payroll company Employment report for July, showing 324,000 jobs created. The estimate was 190,000.

There are many more stats I could write or sum it up. Economy is strong, unemployment is low but a clear trend of fewer openings on the horizon.

The real data comes out Friday. Stay tuned. Below is the Unemployment rate going back to 1948.

If we look too closely at anything we focus on the wrong cue. The first thing I do in the morning is check rates. Am I going to have a good or bad day?

Take a look at the two graphs below. The first is a 50+ year view, while second graph covers three months. We all want the rates to go back to sub 3%, but the likelihood is next to zero.

In the long term, rates in the 6’s and even the 7’s are normal, and in some cases, low. We hope to see rates come down closer to the 5’s or high 4’s, if only to shake loose the 3-percenters (coined a new word) and encourage them to get back in the market and sell their homes.

Home Value Projection: Given the current 4.8% increase in home values this year, it is reasonable to extrapolate that home values are on track to appreciate by 10% over the remaining year.

Yellow – Freight Services, a carrier specializing in pallet-sized shipments, made a significant decision over the weekend by terminating 30,000 employees and shutting down its operations.

The Federal Reserve’s aggressive approach to rate hikes has been concerning, as it seems to disregard the toll it’s taking on real businesses. Yellow failed to reorganize and refinance over $1B of debt due to much higher rates. This may be the canary in the coal mine.

This week is all about Jobs. Opening, jobless claims and job cuts. Stay tuned.

Inflation rose 0.2% in June as expected. the Y/Y index decreased from 3.8% to 3.0%. The peak last year was 7.0%. We are moving in the right direction.

Next week is all about Jobs, Manufacturing and Services reports.

Leaving you with the below. Have a great weekend.

Frequently, we find ourselves avoiding the obvious and instead leaping towards the obscure.

We tend to overcomplicate everything and this applies to the Mortgage and Real Estate industry. Home values are up because we don’t have enough inventory. Rates refuse to drop because the economy keeps plugging along stronger than everyone thought.

Gross Domestic product – GDP is Up 2.4% from the expected 2.0%. We have a strong economy and right now the Feds don’t like it.

Potential sellers are shackled to their low interest rate Mortgages and are hesitant to make a move.

So here we sit waiting for the other to blink. Stop waiting for tomorrow because tomorrow may be a year away.

Always feel free to reach out anytime.

The good news is New Home Inventory is up but rates are stubborn as a mule. The challenge is Builders are Selling Air. Looking at the completed homes, the actual available supply is only 1.2Months of inventory.

Wages are keeping up with Inflation with Fridays PCE report, we should see favorable inflation numbers and positive rate change.

Always feel free to reach out anytime.

That song is stuck in my head, but seriously this is a busy week starting with the FED rate hike decision on Wednesday and the PCE report Friday.

Remember the FED rate is not the Mortgage rate and typically helps the Bond Market i.e. lower rates.

Home prices are still rising. Inventory levels are stubbornly low.

Have a great rest of your week and always feel free to reach out.

We have quite a week ahead of us. The Federal Reserve will be making their rate hike decision Wednesday and the PCE – Personal Consumption Expenditures report will be released Friday. This will give us more insight into inflation.

Housing we have Case Shiller, FHFA and New Home Sales and Pending Home Sales reports.

Interesting data from the Realtor Confidence Index Highlights:

1. Average bids per home sold 3.5 up from 3.3
2. Sold over list price 33% up from 31%
3. % of home Sold that were on the market less than a month i.e. 30 days is up to 76% from 74%.

That last bit of information demonstrates the pent up demand. The flood gates are going to open once the rates drop below 5% or maybe sooner.

Get pre qualified. Have us help you get your ducks in a row before you jump into the water.