Mortgage News

BLS Jobs reported 177,000 jobs created in April expectation was 130,000, but March and February revies down over 58,000. Aprils report will have the same revision next month.

The market understands this and is why the stock and bond markets did not reacted as you might expect.

Sample Survey: The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) uses a sample survey to estimate job growth, which means the initial numbers are based on a subset of businesses and may not perfectly reflect the entire economy. 

Incomplete Reporting:The initial report relies on data from businesses that respond quickly, but some businesses may not report in time for the initial release. 

Annual Benchmark Revisions:Once a year, the BLS revises the monthly data to align with more comprehensive administrative data from Unemployment Insurance programs, which provides a more complete picture of employment. 

Revised Estimates:When businesses not initially included in the sample provide data, the initial estimate may be adjusted downward if the change in employment for those businesses is different from what was initially reported. 

Bottom line: take it with a grain of salt. Rates remain persistently in the 6% range on average. While that marks progress compared to last year—when rates were in the 7% range—it’s simply not improving as quickly as we’d like.

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While trade data provides valuable insights, it does not capture the full scope of the U.S. economic footprint abroad. U.S. exports combined with affiliated sales from American companies operating internationally amount to over $8 trillion.

The United States leads the world in what can be described as economic export-driven influence. Consider the global presence of companies like Starbucks, major fast-food chains, and U.S.-based manufacturers with local operations overseas. Firms such as Ford, Intel, Apple, and Nike exemplify this expansive reach.

Although there is a desire to bring more manufacturing back to the U.S., tariff structures often hinder such efforts. As a result, many companies strategically establish production facilities in foreign markets—particularly in Europe—to mitigate the impact of trade barriers.

Moreover, American software giants like Microsoft continue to drive international economic influence through widespread software licensing and services.

Global trade is highly complex, and focusing solely on a $1 trillion trade deficit oversimplifies the situation. U.S. companies excel at leveraging global markets, showcasing a powerful model of economic engagement that extends well beyond traditional trade statistics.

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A Mixed Bag of Economic Data Leaves Markets Guessing

The latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data surprised to the upside, with headline PCE rising 0.7% in March—beating the 0.5% forecast. Incomes also rose more than expected, up 0.5% versus the 0.4% estimate, signaling continued consumer strength. Encouragingly, the Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, eased to 2.3% year-over-year, down from 2.7%, offering a glimmer of hope on the inflation front.

However, the broader economic picture remains cloudy. Q1 GDP came in at -0.3%, marking the second consecutive quarter of negative growth—technically meeting the definition of a recession. Meanwhile, headline PCE inflation for the year jumped 3.7%, above the 3.1% forecast, keeping inflation concerns alive.

On the labor front, the ADP Employment Report showed just 62,000 jobs created in April—well below the 120,000 expected—adding to the uncertainty.

So, what does all this mean? It’s hard to say. Q1 data was likely distorted by pre-tariff stockpiling and global hedging strategies, making it difficult to read true underlying trends.

The bond market is caught in the crossfire of mixed signals. On one hand, softer job numbers and cooling core inflation support lower rates. On the other, rising headline inflation and whispers of foreign central banks, like China, reassessing their U.S. bond holdings could push yields higher. It’s a tug-of-war with no clear winner—at least for now.

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But what does this really mean? The last time we saw this level was between 2020 and 2022. This figure is heavily influenced by business conditions, employment prospects, and expectations for future income.

Historically, recessions are typically marked by readings below 80.

The March JOLTS report shows job openings declined from 7.49 million to 7.19 million, indicating clear signs of weakness in the labor market. Additionally, the quits rate — which reflects the number of people voluntarily changing jobs — remains at its lowest level since 2015.

Year-over-year, home prices have increased by 3.9%. While some regions have experienced slight declines, the overall housing market remains strong and resilient.

We anticipate continued improvement in interest rates, making this an excellent opportunity for buyers to enter the market before conditions shift.

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When will the impact of tariffs start to show? Mother’s Day (happy early Mother’s Day this Sunday!) marks the 60-day point.

It wasn’t that long ago that we began stockpiling toilet paper and paper towels. Why those two items resonated so strongly with consumers isn’t entirely clear — perhaps because they are some of the most personal essentials we use daily.

While the supply chain impact likely won’t be as severe as it was during COVID, it could still affect container unloading, transportation, and manufacturing. This disruption could also lead to a rise in the unemployment rate.

The Federal Reserve remains focused on inflation, and this situation adds to their concerns. However, on the other hand, lower rents are starting to be reflected in both the CPI and PCE reports, providing some balance.

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Let’s Talk Q1 GDP
The street says growth, but just a trace,
Point four percent—a sluggish pace.
Atlanta Fed? A different view,
Negative four—they say it’s true.
A downturn looms, the signs align,
We’ll know for sure come Wednesday’s time.

PCE Arrives Next Week
March numbers land, but here’s the twist,
No tariffs yet in this data list.
Inflation’s pace is set to slide,
To two-point-two on the headline side.

Jobs in Focus: A Labor Round
JOLTS and ADP come around.
The BLS report will also show
If jobless trends begin to grow.
April’s the frame, with DOGE in play,
And tariffs felt in the laborway.
Unemployment may hold the line,
At four-point-two—or worse this time.

What’s bad for him may good things do,
A downturn comes—what’s that to you?
Recession stirs a fearful flight,
To bonds where money sleeps at night.

When markets shake and yields are sought,
The bond world warms, the rates grow not.
So while the storm may cloud the skies,
For buyers now, low rates arise.

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• Existing home Sales fell 5.9% Expectation 3.3%
• Median Home Price rose 1.7% to $403,700
• Inventory rose 8.1% to 1.33M up 20% from last year.
• 4-months supply. 3.5% higher than February.
• Home on market 36 days on average down from 42 days.
• First time home buyers 32%, Cash buyers 26% investors 15%

With that out of the way, it’s a mixed bag of solid and slightly surprising numbers. Home prices remain strong, largely due to historically low inventory levels.

In fact, inventory is still hovering near its lowest point in 26 years—below even the pre-pandemic norms from 2015 to 2020.

So get out there and buy a home—strike while the iron’s hot!

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Investors are on edge, caught between concerns about the ongoing trade tensions and uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s next move. Over the past month, it feels like we’ve all been whipping our heads back and forth, trying to make sense of every economic indicator, policy comment, and market swing—like reading tea leaves in a hurricane.

Tariffs haven’t just rattled the stock and bond markets—they’ve shaken the confidence of anyone with a retirement account. It’s hard to chart a clear path forward when the ground beneath you keeps shifting. How do you make smart financial decisions when the rules seem to change overnight?

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent spoke this morning, signaling a much softer stance on tariffs. The shift in tone helped ease investor concerns, leading to a modest improvement in interest rates and sparking a rally in the stock market.

“This too shall pass” express the idea that all situations—good or bad—are temporary.

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