Mortgage News

Not one to shy away from a clicky headline myself, but I think Redfin might be playing fast and loose with their math — or borrowing a calculator from a toddler.

They claim there are 1.94 million sellers and 1.45 million buyers… which sounds impressive until you remember that current inventory is 1.45 million, and about 500,000 of those are already under contract. That leaves just 960,000 active listings.

So unless we’ve entered a parallel universe where sellers are cloning homes or buyers are invisible, something doesn’t quite add up.

Front-Running and the GDP
There’s an old adage: “History is written by the winners.” In this case, we saw a spike in inventory driven by front-running — companies buying ahead of the anticipated tariffs.

It’s a reminder that information is often presented by those in control, not necessarily those most affected. The GDP data may show a temporary boost, but it’s not always the full story — sometimes it’s just the version told by the ones holding the pen.

My Take

Tariffs impact more than just the cost of goods — they also weigh heavily on consumer confidence. The unpredictable, on-again/off-again nature of tariff policies creates uncertainty, which is never good for anyone — whether you’re a business owner or a consumer. Stability and clarity are key to sustained economic confidence.

http://www.YourApplicationOnline.com Soft Credit pull get qualified.

A face-to-face meeting between Fed Chair Powell and the President — described as cordial at best.

We’re all hoping for mortgage rates to come down. Elevated rates are putting pressure on the housing market, keeping millions of homeowners locked into sub-3.25% mortgages and discouraging them from selling. This dynamic contributes to historically low inventory and, in turn, continues to push home prices higher.

At some point the cure is worse than the disease.

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) rose 0.2% as expected

• Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) rose 0.2% as expected
• Incomes rose 0.8% expected as 0.3%
• Social Security payments rose 6.9%
• Trend for PCE continues to move down. Good News.

Have a fantastic weekend. we feel the tide shifting in the right direction.

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Q1 GDP came in at -0.2%, slightly better than the expected -0.3%, but still reflects a slowdown—particularly in personal spending, which rose just 1.3% compared to the 1.8% estimate.

This points to weaker consumer demand, which in turn eases pricing pressure. With fewer buyers in the market, retailers are often forced to lower prices to attract spending—ultimately helping to bring inflation down.

The power of the consumer at work.

Another sign of slower consumer spending comes from the latest Apartment List Rent Report, which showed new rents rose just 0.4% in May, while rents are actually down 0.5% year-over-year.

This is especially notable because May is typically a peak season for rentals, when demand — and prices — usually trend higher.

Also worth noting: the national vacancy rate is holding at a historically low 7%, a key factor we haven’t touched on before.

The halt on Tariffs has had a positive impact not only to the stock market but the bond market as well.

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With a new prospect of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac exiting conservatorship and potentially going public has sparked both fear and excitement.

Lets do a quick breakdown:

Positive Impacts:

• Windfall for U.S. Government – recoup bailout funds from 2008.
• Increased Market Efficiency – market driven decision making, competition and innovation.
• Reduced Government Risk – shifting losses to private investors.
• Capital Market Benefits – raise capital and enhance their financial stability.

Negative Impacts:

• Increase in Mortgage Rates – Privatization to higher returns and higher rates.
• Reduced Access to Credit – impacts to less qualified borrowers with higher credit standards.
• Market Disruption – Government to Private is complex and disruptive.
• Financial Instability – if mismanaged could destabilize housing market.

My Take:

I lived through the 2008 financial crisis and saw firsthand both the positives and the pitfalls when Fannie and Freddie began competing with subprime lenders for market share.

It was a fun ride — until it wasn’t.

Healthy competition is a good thing, and this move has the potential to spark innovation and open up the marketplace. That said, with the government still retaining a degree of control, the guardrails remain in place — and that’s reassuring.

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