Mortgage News

The median home price was reported at $401,800, a decline of nearly 5% from $422,700.

This shift isn’t necessarily due to falling home values. There were 5,000 fewer homes sold over $500K and 5,000 more homes sold under $400K. This change in the mix of homes sold likely influenced the median.

Initial jobless claims fell by 4,000 to 217,000, signaling some resilience in the labor market. However, continuing claims remain elevated, hovering around levels last seen in 2021, suggesting that while layoffs may be slowing, re-employment is taking longer.

National Average Mortgage Rates:

• 30-year fixed: 6.77%
• 15-year fixed: 6.01%
• 30-year fixed refinance: 6.87%
• 15-year fixed refinance: 6.22% 

Freddie Mac July 2025

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Closings in June reflect contracts written back in April and May, when interest rates were at their highest levels since last year. At first glance, the numbers might make you say “OMG,” but it’s important to dig deeper.

Despite the headline reaction, there’s still a strong case for lower rates ahead and increasing inventory. Yes, inventory has been ticking up—but so have rates. The market remains in flux, and understanding the timing behind the data is key.

In a strained housing market, rising inventory tends to bring buyers off the sidelines. Combine that with lower interest rates, and you’ve got the ingredients for a real frenzy.

My thoughts and insight:

Housing prices aren’t going down—they’ve likely stabilized and become more in line with reality. That’s not a bubble bursting; it’s normalization.

Even in some of the hardest-hit areas like Florida and Texas, where we’ve seen price declines, values are still significantly higher than they were in 2019. The long-term fundamentals of the housing market remain strong.

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We’re seeing encouraging rate improvements today following comments from Treasury Secretary Bessent, who emphasized that the quality of the proposed tariffs matters more than meeting the August 1st deadline.

This contrasts with Commerce Secretary Lutnick’s firm stance that the deadline is fixed.

On the housing front, completions are down 25% from the August 2024 peak, but construction hiring is on the rise, making up roughly one-sixth of all public sector job gains.

For the week, we’re floating rates for our clients and advising refinance clients to get their documents ready.

If rates drop later this summer as expected, there will be a surge of activity—and being prepared now means you’ll be first in line when the window opens.

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Waller is a respected Fed Governor, a current voting member, and even considered a top candidate for the next Fed Chair.

His recent comments point to softening inflation, questionable BLS jobs data, and, echoing my biggest frustration, the need to move away from an overly restrictive policy stance.

He also noted that the Fed is currently 1.25% to 1.5% above the neutral rate signaling that monetary policy remains overly restrictive. A return to neutral would bring the Fed Funds rate down to around 3%, which typically translates to mortgage rates about 1.5% higher.

Housing news:

Builder sentiment, while still below average, ticked up to 33 remaining under the neutral level of 50. Housing permits held steady, but overall inventory remains tight, continuing to put pressure on supply.

That’s all for this week. Any open houses or questions, feel free to reach out anytime. 800-424-9293 http://www.YourApplicationOnline.com

Big News This Morning: Builder Confidence
Builders don’t just think about today, they’re looking 1, 2, even 3 to 10 years ahead. They’re creating homes that must be sold before the paint dries.

So when builder confidence ticks up or down, it says a lot about where they believe the market is heading.

This isn’t guesswork, it’s money on the line.

Anecdotally, we’re hearing that buyers are holding out for lower rates, while sellers, though cooperative, are hesitant to drop their prices.

My thoughts:

Watch the dog, not the tail.
Focusing too closely on one data point can give a false read on the bigger picture.

Inventory is rising and that trend looks set to continue. Rates, while still higher than we’d like, are starting to ease.

Buyers may be sitting on the sidelines for now, but make no mistake—there are plenty of them, and they’re watching closely.

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What amazes me isn’t just the sheer number of revisions to the CPI and PPI inflation data… it’s the fact that they’re always worse.
Never, “Oops, we overstated inflation!”
Always, “Actually… it was hotter. Sorry about that.”

Remember back in May when we all celebrated those unexpectedly low inflation numbers?
Yeah, turns out that was just a brief episode of data-based optimism.
The numbers were revised higher. Because of course they were.

At this point, the CPI release should come with a warning label:
“Preliminary. Subject to disappointment.”

Bottom line, inflation has been trending down since 2023 but is stuck or what we call sticky inflation. FEDs want 2% but they are not getting it.

Time for the FEDs to start lowering interest rates. The Bond market will respond with Mortgage rates reciprocating.

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CPI Came In Hot-ish: 2.7%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3%, bringing the annual rate to 2.7%, exactly what we expected, but still a bit too spicy for the Fed, whose goal remains a cool, calm 2.0%.

So what’s cooking up that extra heat?

Energy.
When energy prices rise, everything feels it—from making stuff to moving stuff.
If it runs on fuel, it’s probably helping drive inflation right now.

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In Housing News…

Buyers are pausing. Sellers are dropping prices.
It’s like a big staring contest—everyone waiting for either rates to drop or the next market move.

Anecdotally?
There’s a whole crowd of buyers and sellers sitting on the sidelines, just waiting for something—anything—to give.

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The Parable of the Sword

In a quiet village at the edge of a war-torn land, a young man trained for years to master the sword. He dreamed of battle, of glory, of proving his strength. One day, an old warrior arrived—scarred, silent, and respected.

The young man rushed to him, eager to show his skills.
“Watch me,” he said, drawing his sword and slicing the air with precision and speed.
The old warrior simply nodded.

“Impressive,” he said. “But can you carry it all day and never draw it?”

The young man frowned. “What’s the point of a sword if not to use it?”

The old warrior replied,

“A sword is not proof of power. It is proof of responsibility. Anyone can swing steel. Few can carry it with restraint.”

And then he walked on, leaving the young man staring at his reflection in the blade—wondering whether he was mastering the sword, or letting it master him.

Just a thought… visit us at http://www.YourApplicationOnline.com

Prolonged High Rates Are Doing More Harm Than Good

At this point, keeping rates elevated is causing more damage than it’s preventing.

Millions of homeowners are effectively shackled to their low-rate mortgages, unable to move, not just because of cost, but because of reality.

Trading a 3% mortgage for a 6.5% one isn’t just tough, it’s financially unrealistic for most. This lock-in effect is freezing the housing market, limiting inventory, and preventing natural mobility for families who need to upsize, downsize, or relocate.

It’s not just slowing the market, it’s stifling opportunity.

Cracks Are Forming at the Fed

The once-solid stance of the Federal Reserve is starting to show stress. Chairman Powell may be on his way out, with Fed Governor Christopher Waller emerging as a potential successor—and a voice of reason.

Waller is signaling what many have been waiting to hear:

Inflation has come down enough to justify a rate cut, possibly as soon as this month.

He’s also dismissing tariff threats as more political noise than economic substance, calling them a “one-off” with limited long-term impact.

The tone is shifting and markets are listening.

Have a fantastic weekend and always feel free to reach out with any questions. http://www.YourApplicationOnline.com