10y Bond is fighting the Good Fight. Treasury Note Auction very Strong.

Mortgage bonds are holding the line at a key ceiling of 5.29%. For context, when mortgage rates averaged 5.99% last February, the 10-year was at 3.99%.

Yesterday’s Treasury auction was strong, a good sign that the peak may be in front of us.

But oil is moving higher after reports that the President has asked the Pentagon for strike options on Iran ahead of the midterms. Markets don’t price in politics. They price in barrels.

The Fed says the current Fed Funds Rate is “not restrictive” or only “mildly restrictive.” Translation: they want to hike. I disagree, as I’ve said in many prior posts. The pain lands on the poor and middle class, not on the oil market.

You can’t raise rates to get out of the Iran conflict bag.

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