Mortgage News

When everyone and their brother tells you that daylight savings time is coming this weekend as if I haven’t heard it from a thousand other people. So, I decided I am not going to tell you that daylight savings time is this weekend.

Now that my rant is over…  Great news for rates, in fact one of the larger moves this year despite the hot jobs market. The February report shows 311k new jobs, but unemployment rose to 3.6%. We expected it to be unchanged.

There is still a strong leisure and hospitality component to that number, in fact retail and healthcare rounded out the top three jobs’ numbers.

Employers had 10.8 million open jobs in January. December had 11.2 million. These totals are almost double the number of unemployed people seeking work.

Elevated wage growth is a sign the economy is still overheated. This is a challenge for the Fed. As wages increase so does the employers’ products.

Get out there and start looking at homes and contact your lender or me. Rate improvement translates to more qualified borrowers and price points.

YouTube link to useful short videos regarding qualifying for a mortgage and the process.

That’s 32 trillion gallons of water. Back to business… The critical BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) Jobs Report is due out tomorrow.

The market is expecting 200,000 job creations with the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.4%. If the data comes in weaker as we anticipate, the rates should improve.

The news has highlighted the job cuts in technology but there were cuts in all 30 industries which has not happened in 10 years.

We are floating our clients until tomorrow. The Jobs Report is out 8:30am ET.

Have a fantastic rest of your week and always feel free to reach out this weekend with any questions.

Not exactly. Benjamin Franklin was likely one of the first to talk about daylight saving time in the 1780s, presumably to save money on candles.

Spring is in the air, and I am ready to get on a new train. We are seeing some rate improvement and the buying season is just around the corner.

The yield curve continues to invert. This means the short term 2-year bond is outperforming the 10-year. Usually a longer play demands higher yield. This is a continued indication of a recession.

ADP released their February jobs report which was well over the predicted 200k at 242k job creations. Leisure and Hospitality again lead the way. Remember we had huge job losses during Covid. Those jobs are being added back at a rate of 100k each month. We are nearing the end of those additions.

Its Wednesday, half way through the week and I’m back on the road.

Powell is speaking in front of the Senate this morning. If the data bears out, he is prepared to continue the rate hikes. Though inflation is easing, we still have a long road ahead of us.

Prematurely loosening policy might sound good but could be problematic down the road.

We have the lowest months of inventory over the last 20 years, averaging just 2.7 month of inventory. Between 1999 and 2005 it averaged over 5 months of inventory.

Have a great rest of your week.

I am in the middle of a road trip and the one constant is marmalade. Every breakfast its there waiting for me but I do not know anyone who likes it.

Mortgage Bonds have improved the last few days, but rates have gone up over a point in the last month. As I have said previously, as inflation goes, so go the rates.

This is a buyers’ market. The opportunity for appreciation is more evident in a market with low inventory and potentially at the bottom.

Had a great Real Estate seminar Friday afternoon. Thank you, Allan, Gina, and Rickie, for setting this up and inviting me to a part of the mortgage panel.  

“I never worry about the problem. I worry about the solution.” – Shaquille O’Neal

In our industry we are bombarded with a plethora of questions. As professionals if we don’t know the answer we know how to get it. Sometimes those answers are hard to hear but necessary.

I am on a mortgage panel at CDAR later this morning speaking with a room full of Real Estate Agents. I will update on the Monday blog.

We are seeing some recovery in the Bond market today to our favor. Looking to next week for the ADP Employment Report.

Have a fantastic weekend and always available if you have any questions.

Unless it’s too late, then you need Acetone or Nail Polish Remover. You ask, what does Superglue have to do with the mortgage industry, I looked and couldn’t find a connection. But at least we know how to get our fingers apart.

The last Jobs Report turned the market sharply with the 10-year up 75bp. When the bond market is up, rates are up. Adding to this is the inflation date out of the Eurozone came in higher than expected.

But the somewhat silver lining in the hot jobs report is JOLTs, Indeed, LinkUP and ZipRecruiter are all showing declining job postings.

We will get our first indication of the February Jobs data next Wednesday.

Hang in there, it’s going to be a bumpy ride for the next few weeks.

Wolves have long, slender legs and narrow chests. They are adapted for running fast to catch moving prey like deer and elk.

2023 is turning in to an adaptive year. Rates are stubbornly high and refuse to do what they are told, kind of like a house cat. Home owners don’t know what to do when they have a low interest rate on a home they may not like. First time home buyers are just trying to qualify.

Something has to change but what? Inflation will go down, rates will follow and the weather will get warmer. What do we do in the mean time?

Adapting is making a decision you may not have a year earlier. Choose to sell before the market gets flooded with homes. Bid on that house before the rest of the buyers decide to buy.

Do something because doing nothing is its own decision.

Its an oldy but a goody. Have you ever had a dream that you are running but don’t seem to be moving forward (like running is water).

The National Case-Shiller Home Price Index shows home prices fell 0.8% in December, but they are still up almost 6% Y/Y. The FHFA (Federal Housing Finance Agency) released their numbers and are a close match Case-Shiller.

What does it mean? Inventory is low, demand is still there even with higher rates. The prediction of doom and gloom is just not panning out. If you are waiting for the floor to drop, the rates to improve, you have just invited your competition onto the playing field.

This is a buyers’ market more than ever.

Take the stairs even if the elevator is empty. Have a great rest of your week.

Snow in Los Angeles, Everything Everywhere All at Once wins Best Motion Picture and new discovery of a rapidly growing supermassive black hole.

Technical bits: Pending Home Sales measuring signed contracts on existing homes, rose 8.1% in January. Stronger than expected. Even though sales are down Y/Y it’s not as bad as the previous report.

The reaction of buyers when rates move down is clear. March 10th the February jobs report will be released as well as the CPI report March 14th which may be Bond friendly.

Make it a great week.