Mortgage News

Monthly job creation in the US fell for the third month in a row. The Unemployment rate ticked lower to 3.5%, against expectations that it would hold at 3.6%.

“Everything is moving in the right direction.” said Julia Pollak, chief economist for ZipRecruiter. “I have never seen a report align with expectations as much as today’s over the last two years.”

Let’s take a look at where the jobs went.

It’s Friday Easter Weekend and the market is closed. Always feel free to reach out anytime this weekend.

Median home prices for the first time in 11 years have decreased. Slightly but see the chart below.

Nationwide, 25% of homebuyers searched to move to a different metro area between Jan’23-Mar-’23. Top 5 states were Florida, Texas, Arizona, Tennessee and South Carolina.

Rates continue to improve this week. Have a great rest of your week and weekend.

Following five consecutive months of declines, single-family construction starts in February rose 9.8%, and applications for Building permits increased by 13.8% from the previous month, according to the U.S, Census Bureau and HUD.

Inventory is still the biggest struggle for home buyers. Buying a house in any market is a personal decision. It is the single largest purchase most people will make in their lifetime. Trying to predict what might happen is a challenging strategy.

“Buyers sitting on the sidelines today in anticipation of lower prices tomorrow may end up disappointed,” President U.S region at Compass, a real estate company.

I’m off to a Real Estate meeting this morning. Have a wonderful day and always here to help.

I will keep this one light today. This graph shows the Withdrawals Vs Deposits over the last 10 years. Note the time around the stimulus checks.

When I wrote about SVB a few weeks ago, I mentioned the withdrawals started outpacing the deposits in 2022. This graphically reflects those words.

It’s Tuesday, make it a fantastic day.

OPEC+ members announced they will make another production cut. This will have an effect on inflation as oil prices rise.

Black Knight reported that home prices rose 0.2% in February. With low inventory that is expected. Typically we see a 17% increase in inventory as we move into spring, but we only saw 12% this year. – Realtor.Com.

We continue to see incremental improvements to rates and far more buyer and seller activity. The Dam is going to break at some point with all the pent up demand waiting on the sidelines.

Have a fantastic week.

The Fed’s Main measure of inflation, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), showed that inflation rose 0.3% in February, which was a little lighter than estimates of 0.4%. The index declined from 5.3% to 5%, also 0.1% better than market estimates.

Core rate, which strips out food and energy prices, also rose 0.3% last month and is a decrease from 4.7% to 4.6% Y/Y, which was 0.1% lower than forecasts.

Rates continue to drop if not as fast as we hope, still going the right direction.

It’s Friday, the weekend is ahead of us and I am here to help. Have a great rest of your day.

Pending home sales rose for the third month in a tow via the National Association of Realtors.

“After nearly a year, the housing sector’s contraction is coming to an end,” NAR top economist said. Pending home sales rose for the third month in a row in February, adding to other signs that the housing market’s retreat is nearly over per the National Association of Realtors.

We do expect rates to trend downward over the next six months, though we don’t have a Crystal ball, we do have strong indications.

Thursday Morning and woke up to Rain in the desert. Have a fantastic rest of your week.

Two charts below. Orange line is rates, gray area are applications. First chart is Purchase applications, second chart is Refinance applications. Both up for the fourth week in a row.

Interesting how the applications go up as the rates go down.

Have a fantastic rest of your week and always feel free to reach out with any questions.

The Media always seems to get it wrong. The FHFA Housing Price Index that measures home price appreciation on single-family homes within the conforming loan limit rose 0.2% in January. Year over year home prices are up 5.3%.

We have a lack of inventory. Rates are still below their peak and it’s spring time. Another silver lining is apartment rents rose 0.5% in March and up 2.6% year over year but down from 3%.

Learning is how you evolve. Unlearning is how you keep up as the world evolves.

Interest on money counters the degradation of value over time.

Let’s look at an example: 5% inflation, hum not bad what the harm. But if I told you in 14 years your money would be worth half its value you would be concerned. Systemic inflation has consequences. Controlling inflation is necessary and why we keep hearing the Feds talk about lowering inflation.

On the banking news, First Citizens bank agrees to buy assets of Silicon Valley Bank. Banking stocks are up sharply this morning.

It’s Monday and the sun is out. Go SDSU