I know I sound like a broken record, but this is real. Neocloud stocks, the companies building AI data center infrastructure, are significantly lower this morning.

Remember, these companies rely heavily on selling bonds to finance multitrillion-dollar buildouts. Microsoft’s earnings crushed it, but it spent $5 billion less on infrastructure. That’s a tell. When one of the biggest customers pulls back on spending, investors get nervous about everyone else in the chain.

The result is a flight to safety into the U.S. bond market. That’s why the 10-year is moving in the right direction, and the net result is lower mortgage rates.

The Fed left rates unchanged, as expected. There were two dissents, which was also expected.

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) came in as expected, including core PCE, which strips out food and energy prices.

My take: Rates keep not going up, and that’s a huge win. Even if the improvements are modest, the bigger and more important story is that rates are holding.

Time to get out there and buy, sell or make a move. The market isn’t going to wait for you to decide.

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