The MOVE Index is elevated, and that matters for mortgage rates.

The MOVE Index measures volatility in the bond market. It tracks how much traders expect Treasury yields to swing in the coming weeks, not which direction they’ll go. Think of it as the bond market’s “fear gauge,” like the VIX for stocks.

Yesterday the MOVE spiked as yields dropped sharply. That’s a reminder that big moves in either direction, even good ones, raise volatility.

Why it matters for mortgages: Mortgage rates don’t simply follow the 10-year Treasury. They sit at a spread above it. When volatility rises, investors who buy mortgage bonds demand extra yield for the uncertainty, and that spread widens.

Translation: When the bond market is jumpy, the gap between the 10-year Treasury and mortgage rates gets bigger. When things calm down, that gap tends to shrink. So even if the 10-year holds steady, a calmer MOVE Index could mean better mortgage rates.