Just when it looked like a peace deal might be coming together, the US and Iran exchanged strikes over the weekend. Oil prices responded accordingly, with WTI up 3% to over $86/barrel.

This is pressuring stocks and bonds lower (i.e., pushing rates higher). Adding to the bond selloff, new Fed Chair Warsh struck a notably hawkish tone at his Jackson Hole speech, emphasizing rate hikes over cuts.

As if that weren’t enough, Ukraine attacked Russia’s second-largest oil refinery, dealing a significant blow to Russia’s refining capacity, reportedly disabling 43% of its capability.

Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations Survey

Fannie Mae released their Survey with the top 150 market economist forecasting nationwide home values over the next 5 years.

Modest predicted gains of 3% annually. With everything going on, homes may be the right place to park your money.

My take: Expect rates to stay elevated, with the Fed likely to raise rates at least twice more this year. It’s not what you want to hear, but it’s better to navigate with real information than wishful thinking.

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