Much of the oil that once moved through the Persian Gulf before the conflict is still reaching global markets, but through different channels. Over two-thirds of pre war oil.

Some tankers are operating with their transponders turned off, making it more difficult to track shipments. In addition, approximately 7 million barrels per day are being transported via Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline to ports on the Red Sea, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.

Despite the escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict over the weekend, oil prices have remained near $80 per barrel. While many expected a sharper spike, the market appears to believe that global supply disruptions have, so far, been limited.

For now, energy markets are watching closely. Any significant disruption to oil exports could quickly change the outlook for inflation, the bond market, and ultimately mortgage rates.

There is a famous line from Jeff Goldblum in Jurassic Park; “Life finds a way”.

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