Earlier this year, oil was trading below $60 a barrel, inflation was running near 2.4%, and conventional mortgage rates dipped below 6%, the lowest levels we’d seen in quite some time.

Just a few months later, the picture looked very different. Oil prices surged, inflation moved higher, and conventional mortgage rates climbed back toward 7%.

A major driver of that volatility has been the uncertainty surrounding the U.S.-Iran conflict. Geopolitical events like these have a significant impact on the bond market, which directly influences mortgage rates.

One thing the financial markets dislike most is uncertainty. Homebuyers don’t like it. Sellers don’t like it. Investors don’t like it. And neither do the stock and bond markets.

As geopolitical tensions ease and inflation continues to improve, the outlook for mortgage rates becomes more favorable. While no one can predict exactly where rates are headed, history has shown that when uncertainty declines, markets tend to stabilize, and that creates a healthier environment for everyone.

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