Bear with me for a moment:

With every good comes some bad. With every high, a low. We only recognize light because we have seen darkness, and we only appreciate the climb because we have felt the fall. One gives meaning to the other.

Stocks are lower this morning, oil prices are ticking a bit higher, but Mortgage Bonds are slightly positive after softer-than-expected economic data helped stabilize the bond market.

On the heels of more disappointment surrounding the Iran/U.S. peace discussions, markets were looking for something positive, and they found it in weaker GDP growth figures and cooler monthly PCE inflation readings.

That combination helped offset some of the pressure coming from rising oil prices and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

The market is essentially stuck between two competing forces right now:

• Higher oil prices and global tension pushing inflation fears higher
• Slower economic growth and softer inflation data helping bonds recover

For mortgage rates, that means continued volatility. One headline can move the market quickly in either direction.

Bottom line: the bond market is still searching for stability while trying to determine whether inflation or slowing growth becomes the bigger story moving forward.

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