Oil prices are climbing globally while bond yields surge across the UK, Japan, Germany, and here in the U.S., with the 10-year Treasury hitting its highest level since May 2025.

That’s pushing mortgage rates higher.

As a simple example, the 10-year Treasury is trading around 4.567%. Add roughly 2 points, and you get a general idea of where average mortgage rates are landing: about 6.567%.

Now think back just a few months ago. The 10-year Treasury was sitting near 3.99%, and national average mortgage rates briefly touched 5.99% for the first time in years. Amazing how quickly markets can move.

Today also marked Kevin Warsh’s official first day, and the bond market wasted no time selling off. The challenge ahead? Cutting rates becomes extremely difficult while tensions with Iran continue and oil prices remain elevated. Inflation and energy costs still have the steering wheel.

But real estate doesn’t stop. People still get married, relocate, grow families, downsize, and buy homes.

Many buyers are sitting on the sidelines waiting for the “perfect” rate.

Translation: less competition for the buyers willing to move. While others wait… you pounce.

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