The markets, both here and globally, are essentially holding their breath, waiting to see if the Strait of Hormuz reopens and oil prices retreat back toward pre-conflict levels under $60 a barrel.

And it’s worth remembering, just two months ago we were seeing mortgage rates comfortably in the 5’s.

That shift highlights just how quickly geopolitical risk can ripple through energy, inflation, and ultimately borrowing costs.

The ADP Employment Report came in stronger than expected, though still modest by historical standards. We’ll take it, 109,000 jobs added, with small businesses leading the way.

Mortgage applications dipped week over week but remain about 5% higher than this time last year. Even with rates averaging around 6.45%, that’s roughly 40 basis points lower than a year ago, enough to keep some demand in the market.

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