The stock market is up, bonds are down… and mortgage rates are doing that thing where they look at good news and say, “Cool story, still not helping.” So yes, Wall Street is partying, but rates didn’t get the invite and actually lost a little ground today.

With Kevin Warsh stepping in as the new Fed Chair, the perceived separation between the Oval Office and the Federal Reserve suddenly feels very real. Markets liked that. Stocks reacted in a friendly, high-five-each-other kind of way. Bonds? Not so much. And when bonds sulk, rates follow.

Now let’s talk jobs, because this is where the magic trick happens.

Continuing unemployment claims are down, which sounds great… until you realize they stop counting you after roughly 21 to 26 weeks, depending on the state. Translation: the number can go down not because people found jobs, but because the clock ran out. That’s not job growth, that’s the data saying, “You’re no longer our problem.”

So if the job market feels strong on paper but weird in real life, that’s because both things can be true at the same time.

Bottom line:
What you think you’re seeing isn’t always what’s actually happening. Markets love headlines. Rates care about details. And right now, the details are doing all the talking.

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