Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) rose 89,000 to 7.27 million in July, but that follows a large downward revision of 177,000 in June.

Smoke and Mirrors: A recent report found that 1 in 5 job openings isn’t real. Some are posted to make a company look stronger; others are “aspirational,” posted in hopes of landing an all-star candidate for a position that doesn’t actually exist yet.

Here’s another wrinkle: job openings are counted at the state level. I’ll say that again, job openings are counted at the state level. That means the same job opening can be counted multiple times if it’s posted in different states.

The weakness in the labor market is real, and the Fed needs to wake up. Raising rates because “inflation” isn’t at 2% doesn’t fix anything, it just creates more inflation through higher costs for the consumer. To me, and this is just me talking… that’s crazy.

I really hoped Warsh got it. Apparently, he doesn’t.

Elevated rates are here to stay for the interim, so let’s get used to it and move on. Don’t wait around for a single event, rates dropping, home values falling, whatever it is, before you act. If you do, you’ll miss the real opportunity.

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