We need more homes on the market, but we also want home values to rise. We can’t necessarily have both at the same time.

Builders are already pulling back. July housing starts fell 12%, with most of that decline coming from single-family homes. Higher rates and weaker affordability are making builders more cautious.

The resale market remains undersupplied, too. Existing-home inventory is roughly 400,000 homes below its 2019 level, while the Northeast has less than half the supply it had before the pandemic. Nationally, active listings remain about 12% below the 2017-2019 norm. realtor.com

The concern is that today’s construction slowdown becomes tomorrow’s inventory shortage. Builders aren’t responding only to today’s market – they are planning several years ahead. Housing development is a lot like making wine: what goes into the barrel today may not be ready for the market for another two or three years.

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