Oil prices and mortgage rates are umbilically connected whether we like it or not. Energy is one of the fastest ways inflation moves through the global economy, and inflation is the silent enemy of value over time.

When oil spikes, transportation, manufacturing, shipping, and consumer costs all rise with it. That pressure flows directly into inflation data, which pushes bond yields higher and forces mortgage rates to react.

It’s why a conflict thousands of miles away can change the monthly payment on a home purchase here almost overnight.

Two months ago, oil traded below $60 a barrel and mortgage rates were comfortably in the 5’s. Today, elevated geopolitical tension has driven energy prices sharply higher, and the bond market has repriced risk just as quickly.

The reality is simple:
Lower energy costs create breathing room for inflation to cool. Cooling inflation helps bonds recover. Stronger bonds help mortgage rates improve.

In today’s market, oil is no longer just an energy story, it’s a housing story.

Employment Data Revelio Labs show private payroll date 66,000 jobs created in April, though low, it is a positive. Jobless claims rose 10,000, again low but not a negative number.

We are projecting rates to improve as the Iran conflict subsides.

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