As Mike Tyson once said, “Everyone has a plan until you get punched in the face.”

Right now, the market feels like it just took one.

Next week, we should get more clarity on the ongoing U.S., Iran peace talks. The outcome matters, because it directly impacts oil, inflation, and ultimately interest rates.

If tensions ease, we could see oil prices settle, inflation cool, and consumer confidence start to recover. Markets have already shown signs of optimism when talks progress, with equities rebounding on potential resolution headlines.

But if things drag out, the opposite happens, higher energy costs, more uncertainty, and continued pressure on rates and affordability. Businesses are already in “wait and see” mode due to rising costs tied to the conflict.

Consumer confidence is the wild card here. It has dropped sharply amid rising gas prices and economic uncertainty tied to the conflict, with sentiment hitting historically weak levels in recent readings.

And just to clarify, while it feels like a 70-year low, what we’re actually seeing is sentiment near or at record lows in the history of the survey, which goes back to the 1950s.

Bottom line:
We’re in a headline-driven market right now. Peace talks = relief. Escalation = volatility.

But, the Spring activity is real. People move on, move out , move in. life continues forward and its starting to become a busy spring buying season.

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