What looked like a potential off-ramp in the Iran conflict is starting to feel like a much longer road and markets are reacting accordingly.

As uncertainty drags on, oil prices remain elevated, keeping inflation pressures alive, which in turn pushes bond yields and mortgage rates higher or prevents them from improving meaningfully.

Until we see a clear resolution or sustained de-escalation, mortgage rates are likely to remain volatile because right now, the market’s “fuel tank” is being driven by uncertainty.

Initial Jobless Claims rose for the first time by 5,000 to 210,000, still a low level, but worth watching as a potential early indicator of softening.

Continuing Claims fell by 32,000 to 1.82M. That decline could reflect people cycling off benefits, either because they’ve exhausted eligibility or are transitioning out of the system.

The key takeaway: while headline numbers remain relatively stable, the underlying trends suggest a labor market that may be starting to lose a bit of momentum.

There is an opportunity to buy and sell. less competition if played correctly can have huge advantages long term.

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