One of the biggest challenges with the Federal Reserve is their tendency to emphasize that “we don’t react to just one month of data”, which is fair, but it can sometimes overlook the broader trend over the past 12 months.

A good example was yesterday when Jerome Powell addressed the 92,000 job losses and reiterated that the Fed doesn’t focus on a single report. However, when you zoom out, most of 2025 has shown minimal job growth, suggesting a more persistent slowdown.

We’re seeing a similar dynamic in housing. New Home Sales, which measure signed contracts, fell 18% in January. While that sounds significant, it comes after a strong 17% gain in October and November, reinforcing that over time, activity has remained relatively consistent despite short-term swings.

On the labor side, Initial Jobless Claims dropped by 8,000 to 205,000, which appears encouraging on the surface. But Continuing Claims, a better measure of ongoing unemployment, rose by 10,000 to 1.86 million, pointing to a labor market that may be gradually losing momentum.

The takeaway: while single data points can be noisy, the trend beneath the surface is what really matters, and right now, it’s showing signs of a slower, more uneven economy.

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