Tensions between the United States and Iran have sharply escalated. What was geopolitical pressure is now open conflict, with the U.S. taking direct action and Iran responding in kind.

The situation has widened beyond these nations, pulling in and destabilizing the broader region.

Energy markets are reacting, global security feels more fragile, and the sense of uncertainty is real. Compared to last week, the stakes feel higher and the margin for error much smaller.

The argument for $120 a barrel is real. How is the supply replacement, including potential releases from strategic reserves and how quickly mobilized?

We’ll feel this at the gas pump sooner rather than later. Energy is a major component of inflation, and the Federal Reserve is watching closely.

Bond yields have climbed, reversing most of the rate gains we’ve seen over the past two weeks. History suggests geopolitical spikes like this eventually cool off the bigger question isn’t if things settle down, but when.

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