We may have expected a bond/securities flight to safety this morning, but history suggests otherwise.

If we look back:

• Qasem Soleimani Assassination (2020): Oil jumped from $60 to $66 per barrel (+$6), while the 10-year Treasury increased 10 basis points.
• October 7 attacks (2023): Oil moved from $82 to $90 (+$8), and the 10-year rose 30 basis points.
• 12-Day War (June 16, 2025): Oil climbed from $74 to $83 (+$9), with the 10-year increasing 10 basis points.

The pattern: geopolitical shocks pushed oil higher, and instead of a sustained flight to safety into bonds, yields moved up alongside energy prices.

In all of these cases, oil prices and yields eventually settled back to prior or even lower levels once the initial shock faded.

We also have a busy week ahead for financial and labor market data. That reporting will likely have a far greater impact on rates than this morning’s oil-driven volatility.

Economic fundamentals especially inflation and jobs ultimately carry more weight than short-term geopolitical price spikes.

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