Yesterday afternoon we got the January 28th Fed meeting minutes, and the split could not be more obvious.

Some Fed members are basically saying, “Everything looks fine. Let’s pause. Maybe even hike again if inflation doesn’t cooperate.”

Fine? Based on what data? It feels disconnected from what’s actually happening on the ground.

Other Fed members see what the numbers are clearly showing:

• The labor market is weakening, especially once you factor in downward revisions.
• Deregulation is picking up momentum.
• Tariff pressures are easing.
• Housing is actively disinflating.

That’s two very different readings of the same economy.

One side sees lingering inflation risk.
The other sees slowing growth and cooling price pressures.

This isn’t a minor difference in tone, it’s a fundamental disagreement about where the economy really stands.

And markets are paying attention.

My opinion? reality is going to hit and hit hard in the coming months. Rates will drop and we hope significantly by summer. The emperor is not wearing cloths.

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