A single Tweet took the Bond market from Rate to not Rate friendly.

Increasing the defense budget to $1.5 trillion, yes, trillion, represents roughly a 50% increase. The obvious question is: where does that money come from? It gets printed, and that’s exactly what rattled the bond market.

The gains we were expecting from productivity and jobless claims were erased with a single tweet.

Tomorrow’s BLS Jobs Report is expected to show the unemployment rate edging down from 4.56% to 4.50%. On the surface, that seems insignificant, but these figures are rounded.

  • 4.56% prints as 4.6%
  • 4.50% prints as 4.5%

That rounding can change the narrative.

Bottom line: you can’t rely on the headline number alone. You have to look under the hood to see what’s really going on.

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