The back and forth and escalation is pressuring risk on assets driving money to the bond market helping rates. It’s a flight to safety.

Oil prices moved lower to $58.25 per barrel, the lowest level since May. Oil plays a critical role in the broader economic “food chain”, influencing manufacturing costs, transportation expenses, and ultimately how much extra cash consumers have to spend.

Day 14 of the Government Shutdown and Growing Uncertainty

As mentioned above, uncertainty is driving a flight to safety. We’re happy to see rates dropping, but it’s worth asking, at what price?

The September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be released on October 24th, just ahead of the Fed’s October 29th rate cut decision.

My take:
Uncertainty remains the dominant theme. Consumers are feeling uneasy, and that perception real or not impacts spending. When confidence drops, we see behavioral shifts: steak becomes chicken, new purchases turn into repairs.

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