My favorite Fed President is Austan Goolsbee from Chicago. He was on CNBC this morning talking about the stability of the labor market, then later in the same segment, he referenced its deterioration. A bit confusing, but he’s always fun to listen to.

One comment he made was “Don’t over index on monthly aggregates”. It’s Friday so let’s break that down into English.

Don’t place too much weight or make big conclusions based on a single month’s jobs data (like total payrolls or unemployment rate). Monthly jobs reports are noisy and can swing due to seasonal adjustments, temporary factors, or later revisions. Instead, it’s better to look at trends over several months and broader data points to get a truer picture of the labor market.

Watch the Dog not its Tail.

In other words: Don’t let one month’s headline number drive the whole narrative.

Have a fantastic weekend and if you or you know someone that is looking to refinance or purchase, we are happy to help.

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