ADP data came in very weak at -32k versus expectations of +50k. To add to the concern, last month’s figure was revised down to -3k from the originally reported +54k.

This matters because ADP is based on actual payroll data, unlike the BLS report, which relies heavily on surveys.

what will be impacted by the Government shutdown:

Most federal workers will remain on the job, but key processes will be impacted, such as Flood Insurance through NFIP, government payoffs and subordinations, VOEs for government employees, and ordering tax transcripts.

My take: Rates have dipped slightly as investors make a “flight to safety” into the bond market. More demand for bonds means lower yields, which in turn translates into lower mortgage rates.

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