Last week the market was feeling good and had already priced in the Fed’s 0.25% cut until Powell, in all his wisdom, reminded us that everything is still “data dependent.” Translation: don’t get too comfortable. Classic Debbie Downer move.

As a result, we gave back some ground over the past couple of days, though we’re still holding on to part of last month’s gains.

On the bright side, we’re now seeing the biggest spike in mortgage applications since 2022, with a big chunk of that being refinances.

My thoughts: no matter what data you read, it’s always a look in the rearview mirror. It’s the classic case of analysis paralysis. A slew of Fed members spoke yesterday and this morning, with the general consensus pointing toward continued rate cuts.

Powell, however, continues to play the cautious parent, reminding us that “you can’t have your pudding if you don’t eat your meat.”

Refinances and purchases are on the move.

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