The Fed’s favorite bedtime story, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), comes out tomorrow morning. Expectations are for a 0.3% rise, with inflation running at 2.9% annually.

Think of it as the trailer before the big blockbuster: next month’s report will be the real show, for better or worse.

Drama persists at the Fed with Powell pressured to leave and allegations of maleficence. True or not it creates uncertainty which no one likes.

The Initial Jobless Claims report paints the picture of a stable labor market on the surface. But a closer look tells a different story. While about 200,000 people are receiving Continuing Claims, this figure overlooks the 900,000 who fell off the rolls, individuals no longer receiving benefits and still struggling to find employment.

This is a good reminder that headlines and soundbites rarely capture the full picture. To understand the labor market, you have to look beyond the surface.

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