Let’s jump right in!
Yesterday’s weak 20-year Treasury auction led to a selloff in the bond market, which pushed mortgage rates higher.
We’re also seeing upward pressure on global yields, and Moody’s recent credit rating downgrade for the U.S. certainly isn’t helping the situation.
On top of that, the House just passed a new budget—essentially a tax and spending bill—which is making bond markets nervous. Why? More spending means more debt, and that translates to more Treasury issuance. The market has to absorb all of that.
Looking ahead, August is shaping up to be critical. That’s when we’re projected to hit the X-date—the point at which the Treasury may no longer be able to fund the government or service our debt.
With all of that in play, the ripple effect showed up in April’s Existing Home Sales, which dipped 0.5% — coming in below expectations.
There’s clearly pent-up demand in the market, but with rates moving higher, many buyers are hitting pause and waiting for conditions to improve.
When rates drop, look-out it will get very busy very fast.
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