GDP = C+I + (X-M) Consumption + Investment + Government Spending + (Exports-Imports)

I bet you didn’t expect to do math this morning!

Consumer spending, which accounts for 68% of GDP, plays a major role in the economy. Later today, we’ll receive the latest Q1 GDP estimate, with expectations of little to no growth.

In February, Durable Goods orders increased by 0.9%, despite forecasts predicting a 1% decline—largely driven by Defense Spending.

Meanwhile, Core Shipments, along with exports and imports, also rose 0.9%, surpassing expectations. This surge was primarily due to shipments being pushed forward ahead of upcoming tariffs.

What does this all mean to me/you? We don’t exactly know. Uncertainty restricts growth.

Why build a plant if you don’t know if you need it. Tariffs are a double edge sward. If they are put in place will they get yanked a month later. If a business owner is relying on those tariffs they may wait before they spend capital on a new building.

Bottom line is Mortgage rates are headed in the right direction. Home Values are up and unemployment is steady.

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