I listened to Austan Goolsbee this morning, and he shared a powerful analogy. He said the Fed is like someone constantly reading data and sniffing everything out, but eventually, you have to start walking—taking action.

He also touched on the concept of transitory – one month of change isn’t the same as four months. He was referring to tariffs and their ongoing impact on inflation, suggesting that short-term shifts don’t always stay temporary.

The Dot Plot below represents the The Federal Open Market Committee FOMC 12 members. The trend is lower Fed rates, lower Mortgage rates.

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