Gold has a unique and complex relationship with GDP. Let’s break it down.

The latest Q1 2025 GDP estimate from the Atlanta Fed sits at -2.1%. However, when factoring in gold, the adjusted GDP figure moves closer to zero. Next report scheduled for release Thursday, March 27th.

Here’s why: Strong GDP growth often leads to higher interest rates, which can reduce demand for gold. On the other hand, economic uncertainty or a weakening economy tends to push investors toward gold as a safe-haven asset, influencing the overall economic landscape.

The Feds are paying attention. They are wrapping up their meeting tomorrow afternoon. At that point we will compare their projections on Fed Funds Rate, inflation, unemployment and the DDP from their last meeting.

Why do mortgage rates change? The answer is complex. It’s like looking through a peephole—catching only glimpses of the full picture and making educated guesses as the image gradually comes into focus.

My take on this: Rates are trending downward. As always, be ready—especially if you’re considering refinancing. When the shift happens, things will move quickly, and you’ll want to be prepared.

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