Fed Pres Harker, Fed Governor Waller and Fed Pres Bullard all seem to be reading from the same book.

They are all saying, January was not a surprise historically and not overly concerned with potential tariffs.

The NAHB Home Builder Sentiment Index dropped 5 points due to concerns over tariffs, mortgage rates, and rising housing costs—particularly with Canada, which supplies about 30% of our soft lumber.

Housing starts and permits have declined, but only relative to December’s numbers. The key factor in December? Lower mortgage rates. And it wasn’t even a significant drop—just the expectation of lower rates was enough to drive demand.

Now, imagine what will happen when rates actually decline in a more sustained and meaningful way.