The sheer volume of data our industry processes to uncover that single spark of insight leading to the answer is immense—and no, for all you geeks out there, it’s not 42!

When are the Interest Rates going to Drop?

No one knows for certain, but we can make some educated guesses.

This week focused heavily on jobs reports. The ADP Employment Report came in weaker than expected, and October’s report was also revised lower. Most of the hiring occurred in large businesses.

Manufacturing lost 26,000 jobs, but the annual pay for job stayers—those who have remained in their jobs over the past year—rose by 4.8%.

The Fed is set to meet on the 18th, with a consensus expectation that they will lower the Fed rate by 0.25%. While this is independent of mortgage rates—which are based on mortgage-backed securities (i.e., bonds)—it can still exert influence.

Consider the differential between the mortgage rate and the Fed rate. See below.