Oil prices are sharply higher this morning, while stocks and bonds are both under pressure following last night’s address to the nation.

Markets were looking for clarity, and didn’t get it.

Instead, the takeaway appears to be prolonged conflict with no clear plan to reopen the Strait, which is pushing oil prices higher and adding to inflation concerns.

On the labor front, data was mixed:

• Jobless Claims fell by 9,000 to 202,000
• Continuing Claims rose by 25,000 to 1.84 million

Meanwhile, the Challenger Job Cuts Report showed 61,000 layoffs in March, with roughly 25% attributed to AI-related reductions, bringing the Q1 total to 217,000 cuts.

The theme is becoming clearer:
Rising energy costs + softening labor trends = a more complicated outlook for rates and the broader economy.

Look at it this way, if the unemployment rate is at 4.4% and expected to go to 4.5%, that means 95.5% employment.

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