The JOLTS job report for December came in with 6.5 million job openings, well below the 7.2 million expected and officially the lowest level since 2020. Oof.

November didn’t escape either, getting revised down from 7.15M to 6.93M. So yes, the labor market is quietly taking its foot off the gas while pretending everything is fine.

Now layer in the AI boom. Counterintuitive take: AI won’t stoke inflation—it does the opposite.

Why? Productivity goes up, but jobs go down. Fewer jobs = less consumer spending. Less spending = retailers sharpening their pencils and cutting prices just to move inventory. Congrats, that’s disinflation with a Silicon Valley accent.

And this is exactly why Kevin Warsh (or at least the future-looking Fed crowd) keeps nudging toward rate cuts. He’s not staring at last quarter’s data like it’s a backup camera, he’s looking through the front windshield at where the economy is actually headed.

Rear-view Fed vs. windshield Fed.
One taps the brakes late. The other sees the curve coming.

Let’s get you pre-approved and ready to buy or refinance. http://www.YourApplicationOnline.com