Labor Market Reality Check (QCEW vs. BLS)

• Anecdotally and now with hard data we’ve known the labor market was weakening. The QCEW (Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages) data released Friday confirms it, using actual employment records, not estimates.
• Unemployment rate: 4.6%, the highest level in four years.
• April 2024 – March 2025:
  • BLS overstated job growth by 52%.
• July 2024 – June 2025:
  • BLS initially reported 1.923 million jobs created
  • BLS later revised that down to 1.534 million
  • QCEW shows actual job creation of just 420,000
  • Result: BLS overstated job growth by 1.503 million, or 78%
• January 2025 – June 2025:
  • Only 28,000 jobs created in total.
• Bottom line:
  • The labor market has weakened substantially over this period.

What does this mean going forward?

• Despite the data, Fed members continue to lean on the narrative that the labor market is “solid,” “stable,” or “not that bad.”

The Feds will wake up and realize we are in far worse shape and again be late to the game.

Time to get pre-qualified for a mortgage. We see rates dropping and maybe sooner than later. http://www.YourApplicationOnline.com

---