The BLS Jobs Report comes out tomorrow, and if the “see-sawyers” are right, the numbers could come in light which would be rate-friendly for mortgages due to a classic flight-to-safety move in the bond market.

Right now, the market is expecting 40,000–50,000 jobs added in November, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.4% or ticking up to 4.5%.

And let’s not forget: Powell himself has acknowledged that BLS job reports may be overstating employment growth, which is why this release carries even more weight than usual.

So what does that mean for us?

Money managers crave stability. When the job market underperforms—even against already low expectations it scares them. When that happens, money tends to move out of the stock market and into the bond market.

That shift increases demand for bonds, pushes bond prices up, and drives yields (and mortgage rates) down. In short: weaker job data often translates into better news for rates.