The Data Strikes Again: About as Useful as a Chocolate Teapot

The JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) for September and October showed an increase in job openings, with most of the gains coming from September. The biggest contributors were the Trade/Transportation/Utilities sector and Professional/Business Services.

The hiring rate held at 3.2%, the lowest level since 2011 (excluding the Covid period). At the same time, layoffs rose to their highest level since January 2023.

ADP data shows 20,000 jobs created over the last four weeks, but that follows 13,500 job losses in the previous four-week period.

What does this mean for the Fed?
This adds more justification for a rate cut tomorrow. The real question is how the market will react and at this point, it’s a toss-up.

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