ADP pulls off the Band-Aid. Don’t look if you’re squeamish.

The highly anticipated and somewhat feared ADP report tells it like it is. November numbers show 32,000 job losses, a sharp contrast to estimates calling for 10,000 to 40,000 job gains.

Looking deeper, small businesses lost 120,000 jobs, while medium and large companies posted some modest gains. Keep in mind: small businesses employ nearly 50% of the entire labor force. Let that sink in half of all workers are tied to small business.

If there’s a canary in the coal mine, this is it.

Another key detail: job stayers saw only modest pay increases, and job switchers saw even smaller gains.

The gap between the two has tightened to just 1.9%. In other words, fewer employees are switching jobs and when they do, the financial incentive is far less compelling than it used to be .

What does this all mean?
The odds of the Fed cutting rates on the 10th just increased. The bond market has already responded positively, and we expect this momentum to continue through the end of the year.

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