NVIDIA now represents 7.68% of the S&P 500, the largest single weighting in the index. Expectations for their earnings are set extremely high.

If they deliver a strong beat, equity markets could rally further, with some capital flowing out of the bond market.

Conversely, if NVIDIA falls short of expectations, equities could pull back, prompting investors to rotate into bonds, helping drive interest rates lower.

NY Fed President John Williams says we are too restrictive by 0.875 indicating he is up for 3 rate cuts this year.

Personal Consumption Expenditures – PCE the Feds preferred measure if inflation will be released Friday.

Between NVIDIA’s earnings and the upcoming PCE report, the bond market could move in either direction. If you’re currently floating but like the rate you see, it may be wise to lock now.

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