In every gathering there’s that moment when the cake is cut and everyone glances around. A pause hangs in the air. Do you take the first piece? Do you wait politely?

Eventually someone makes the move, and suddenly it’s no longer awkward, it’s just cake being eaten.

Now think about the Fed and rate cuts. They’re standing over the cake. Everyone sees it, everyone wants a slice, markets, borrowers, politicians. But hesitation is real.

Once you cut that first piece, expectations change. Cut too early, and you look greedy, reckless. Wait too long, and the cake gets cold, or worse, someone else defines the moment for you.

This is the “Monster in the Math”, the uncertainty baked into every economic model. Growth slowing, inflation cooling, jobs weakening… none of it ever adds up neatly. The Fed knows once they take that first slice, it sets the pace for everything that follows.

The Feds are cutting the cake. Get ready for the ride to start.

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