Speaking from my Engineering days, If the data collected is inaccurate, incomplete, or low quality (“garbage in”), any analysis, insights, or decisions made using that data will also be flawed or misleading (“garbage out”).

The Wall Street Journal article spoke to the staffing shortages at the Bureau of Labor and Statistics -BLS a U.S. Government agency hit by staffing cuts.

The BLS Report is utilized to calculate the inflation rate. These are actual people or statisticians going out and physically checking prices on groceries and other commodities. With less staff they have to guess or substitute.

Other Headlines:

• Challenger Job Cuts: Announced layoffs are up 80% compared to this time last year.
• Beige Book: Reports declining economic activity across several regions.
• Initial Jobless Claims: Increased by 8,000 to a total of 247,000.

My Take:
While these headlines may seem negative at first glance, they actually signal positive movement for interest rates. Slower job growth and economic softening tend to ease inflation concerns — a key focus for rate policy.

With the BLS report due tomorrow, expectations are for a cooling labor market, marked by slower hiring and a potential uptick in unemployment.

If that plays out, we could see rates begin to trend downward — possibly meaningfully — as we move into summer.

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