Those of us who’ve been around the block a few times — say, 12 years ago — remember what deflation looked like.
It was a magical time when:
- Steak night turned into “Hey, chicken’s great too!”
- That snack your kids love? Suddenly it was, “Let’s try something similar… and half the price.”
- Craving a soda? Congratulations! You’ve discovered the kitchen faucet — nature’s original soft drink, now with 100% fewer bubbles and all the hydration.
Deflation wasn’t just economic — it was a lifestyle.
The May ADP Jobs Report came in well below expectations, with just 37,000 jobs created versus the 115,000 forecasted. The sharpest weakness was seen among small businesses (1–49 employees).
In a notable detail, goods-producing businesses lost 2,000 jobs — a potential canary in the coal mine for broader economic trends.
My take:
If job growth continues to decline, we’re likely to see bond yields fall, which in turn puts downward pressure on interest rates. A softer labor market typically supports rate relief.
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