“57% of all statistics are made up.” Be careful where you get your info—especially from the news media and so-called “experts.”

Take this one: Redfin recently reported that 44% of home sellers offered concessions to buyers. That might sound like a lot, but it was actually higher in 2023 and pretty similar to what we saw before COVID. Context matters.

Right now, the housing market is strong, but the biggest challenge is inventory. That tight supply is keeping home values high, which is great for sellers, but it’s definitely tougher on first-time buyers and those looking to move up.

Shifting gears—literally—goods have to move by truck or ship (see what I did there?). This is a bit of a canary in the coal mine for the broader economy.

The April shipping reports show a sharp rise in “blank sailings”—canceled port stops. These happen occasionally, but this jump is significant: six weeks ago, 30,000 containers were canceled. Now? 370,000. That’s a massive slowdown.

Ports are also reporting a 12% increase in available capacity, which basically means less stuff is coming in.

Then there’s the wealth effect: when the stock market is up, people feel richer and spend more. When it drops—like it has recently—affluent buyers start pulling back on big purchases.

All signs point to a slowing economy, and the chances of a recession are rising.
But here’s the silver lining: mortgage rates are likely to fall.